New Year ushered in a blur of bright colors in Eastern Europe - Estonia since 1 January 2011 officially adopted the euro, becoming the 17th euro zone member states, is the first of the former Soviet Union to join the euro.
However, in 2010, the debt crisis is still raging in Europe, a spike. Although the euro area could dissolve all the conjecture seem extreme, but it is undeniable that the world-renowned monetary union in 2011 face more difficult challenges.
At present, the crisis spread to Portugal and Spain, the risk of financing early in 2011 and early March of the Irish election was the leading cause further exacerbated the debt crisis of Europe, the main factor.
European Central Bank as "the last buyers"?
SG Michala Marcussen, chief global economist in the economic outlook for this year report that the market in 2011 will be to re-focus attention on the euro zone sovereign debt crisis as a start.
The Morgan Stanley believes that the European sovereign debt crisis will further suppress the euro in 2011. The bank said the euro may be at least early 2011, will be under pressure, unless it can put a satisfactory solution, and prove that the crisis is unlikely to spread to Spain.
The bank believes that the external market in the euro zone diffuse the crisis is likely to be further deepened. With the spread of the crisis, the ECB will have to further expand the balance sheet, and ultimately forced the European Central Bank as a "last buyers" peripheral countries to intervene to support the bond market.
Established in May last year, 440 billion euros of European financial stability institutions (EFSF) for more euro-zone countries build a framework for assistance. However, the mechanism for Ireland in the late 2010's "testing the waters" allows the market rather disappointed, as high as 5.8% of the loan interest rate for Ireland unsustainable.
Discussion on the expansion of EFSF scale of obstacles in Germany difficult. However, in the event of extreme circumstances, such as the euro zone's fourth largest economy, Spain to seek assistance, then the core of the country's financial burden will increase dramatically.
Morgan Stanley believes that if the cost of financing the core of the country's sovereign debt crisis, not because of inflation increased substantially, then the prospects for the euro worse than expected.
German government bonds in recent weeks from making sales situation, demand has been weak, means that investors began to worry that Germany might at some point to a broader range of monetary union debt.
Financial Alliance essential
Beginning in 2011, the ill-fated Euro faces a huge challenge for: the entire euro zone this year, demand for sovereign debt financing is expected to reach 970 billion euros, while the financing needs of the banking industry about 550 billion euros.
All these funds have to be a rainy day, but as long as the future financial framework of the euro area is still uncertain, the European debt crisis clouds dispersed, the external debt market countries that finance will continue to face challenges.
Throughout 2010 has clearly proven that the great experiment of European Monetary Union in the absence of a certain degree no longer under the conditions of the Financial Alliance, but this reform for the euro-zone policy makers is no easy task.
Once the rapidly deteriorating situation, policy makers, under pressure from all sides or will the have the "two evils choose the Light": the whole of Europe countless ties between the banking, financial alliance would be dangerous smaller choice.
French bank that the euro zone policy makers of the "trick" only act in the market prior to pre-emptively announced a "soft" financial alliance or the European central bank may adopt a more aggressive market intervention.
Morgan Stanley also believes that the euro's decompression is needed is a sustainable fiscal policy program, which enables members to share the pressure and to some extent involved in the banking sector recapitalization. However, due to Germany's local elections will be held in early March 2 at the end, the program is unlikely.
Ireland, Finland, Cyprus, Greece are facing legislative elections in 2011. The current Italian political situation may be precarious election this year. The next legislative elections in Germany until after the end of the year 2013, but will face Germany in 2011 a series of state elections. French legislative and presidential elections will be conducted in mid-2012.
Michala Marcussen that the new government of Ireland may only make a small change of the rescue plan, but the greater danger lies in the number of bonds held by private investors in the Irish banking sector will be sharing the losses. "Re-open the Pandora's box will affect the financing environment for the banking industry throughout Europe, especially in peripheral countries."
SG pointed out that European policy makers may accelerate a European banking rescue fund and to provide a clearing mechanism for the Irish banking sector. In order to enhance the broader context of confidence in the euro area, a sovereign debt crisis for reliable and fast solution is top priority policy makers.