In the final week of August, when the expected slowdown in global economic recovery is still dominate the market and the international crude oil prices have fallen to 74 U.S. dollars / barrel lower, while gold prices in 1230 U.S. dollars remains high. In the U.S. economic outlook continue to be looked down upon the situation, analysts expect oil prices lower and gold higher this week, the trend or difficult to change.
1230 U.S. dollars to help break gold ETF
Software to read the tape showed up to press time yesterday, the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil contract in October the main force reported in electronic trading price of 73.86 U.S. dollars / barrel, a small rise of 0.05%, but the overall downward trend over the same day.
The trend line from the K point of view, the contract since Aug. 3 approaching 83 dollars a day / barrel price, the on into the lower. Last 13 trading days, the international price of oil ended up with only two trading days, the remaining 11 days were reported down, the cumulative decrease of about 10 U.S. dollars, or 12%.
Sharp drop in crude oil, the international gold price is soaring. Up to press time yesterday, the New York Metal Exchange in December gold contract rose 0.05% main, to 1,229.4 U.S. dollars / ounce, while the earlier breakthrough 1230 U.S. dollars / ounce.
The trend line from the K point of view, the contract touched since July 28th 1160 U.S. dollars / ounce, after a low, or rise into a continuous channel, 18-day closed down, only four trading days, the cumulative increase to nearly 70 U.S. dollars, or 6%.
Data show substantial strength in gold and a great relationship with the influx of hedge funds. Last week the international gold ETF holdings increased by 60 million ounces of total holdings and the high in July has been a difference of less than 40 million ounces. Analysts pointed out that if concerns about the economic outlook continued, gold no reason not to continue to rise. But if such concerns diminished, and probably part of the end benefit disc.
Gold price trend will not change
Analysis point of view also held that the United States this week announced a series of economic data, and because most of the expected point to a negative, so the last week in August, the international oil prices and gold price trend is expected to remain unchanged.
Data show that the United States will announce this week's economic indicators include data on home sales in July, is expected to drop from 5.37 million square feet 4,780,000 square feet; in July durable goods orders are expected from the negative growth last month, to 1% positive growth of 2.5%; new home sales data, expected from the 330,000 square feet last month, slightly increased to 339,000 square feet; the latest week, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits, estimated at 495,000, compared with 500,000 before the little difference still in November 2009 to the high; the second quarter GDP growth rate may be significantly revised downward from 2.4% to 1.4%.
It is noteworthy that the most important reason is that the revised GDP than previously projected a sharp decline, mainly due to net imports of the United States in the second quarter data will be revised up sharply, the trade deficit's drag on GDP is likely to hit in 1982 the highest value since the second quarter.
In addition, Eurostat has also published yesterday in August Eurozone Composite PMI data, showing the month the index fell to 56.1 from last month's 56.7, which services PMI fell to 55.6 from 55.8, while the manufacturing PMI fell sharply from 56.7 to 55.