There's a 98% chance of a global recession, research firm warns

high inflation

There is currently a 98.1% chance of a global recession, according to a probability model run by Ned Davis Research.

The only other times that recession model was this high has been during severe economic downturns, most recently in 2020 and during the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009.

“This indicates that the risk of a severe global recession is rising for some time in 2023,” economists at Ned Davis Research wrote in a report last Friday.

central banks ramp up their efforts

Seven out of 10 economists

Given surging food and energy prices, there are concerns that the high cost of living could lead to pockets of unrest. Seventy-nine percent of the economists surveyed by the World Economic Forum expect rising prices to trigger social unrest in low-income countries, compared to a 20% expectation in high-income economies.

sinking into a bear market

billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller

Even Federal Reserve officials have conceded there is a growing risk of a downturn.

Still, there are clearly bright spots, especially in the United States, the world’s largest economy.

The US jobs market remains historically strong, with the unemployment rate sitting near the lowest levels since 1969. Consumers continue to spend money and corporate profits are sturdy.

There are also hopes that the worst US inflation in 40 years will cool off in the coming months as supply catches up with demand.

The Ned Davis researchers said that although recession risks are rising, its US recession probability model is “still at rock-bottom levels.”

“We do not have conclusive evidence that the US is currently in recession,” the researchers wrote in the report.


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